Well, all you really need to know is how fast of a download each type of connection is likely to offer.
If you want to give your users a couple estimates (maybe dial-up and broadband) you could use baseline estimates of typical download rates.
Dial-up modems cap off at 53.3 Kbps (and that's bits, not bytes) in the U.S. and Canada, and theoretically, 56 kbps everywhere else.
DSL offers between 128 kbps and 1.5 Mbps download, but likely closer to the lower end of that approximation.
Cable downloads start at about 1.5 Mbps and get faster.
Ultimately, you'll need to choose a few base download speed estimates and stick with them.
Then, you'll need to convert those figures to whatever unit your file sizes are displayed in (presumably Kš and then the math is pretty simple.