A friend of mine, an artist, the other day told me that he believes that the open source movement is a great thing. Sort of like artists, people are focusing upon specific problems and finding ways to solve/approach them.
I think if you can identify a problem (a gap in the market), and you can fulfill an implied promise to solve the problem, then you have the ability start something. Where things go wrong, I believe, is when the group feels they need to solve all problem in all gaps.
And more importantly, gaining confidence of the folks you work with in the process will be the sure way you can continue further down the road.
In ten years from now, alot of folks are going to retire and many companies (including small ones) will become much more tech savvy as the new kids start to enter the job market(generation y) - I think this will be a boon to open source as well.