It's not just the page requests, it's what the pages are doing when they're requested. I wrote a page that displayed the top 20 in a member referral competition, started out absolutely fine with 4000 members, when that got to 250,000 it was taking 30 seconds to do the query, with loads of people wanting to know if they're winning... disaster, so you end up caching the result and running the real query once per hour.
Are you generating any sort of stats at all, especially on a table that needs indexing?