The number of hits/minute is not important, because that will be deicded by how fast MYSQL can process the queries.
The problem lies with concurrency. If you expect to get an average of 20 concurrent users, beat your MySQL at double that amount, see how it copes with 40 concurrent users or even 60 or 80.
MySQL is very fast at simple things. But to be taht fast, it sacrifices a lot of things, including proper locking. This lack of proper locking is the first thing to cause problems when many users want to update the table at the same time, because every update query will force a table-level lock, which means they all end up waiting on each other's queries to unlock the table before they can lock the table for themselves.
Effectively, all queries are executed in sequence, one after the other.
'proper' databases like PostgreSQL (also free) have row-level locking, which means that each update only locks the rows that it is actually updating. If one query updates row 5, another query can update row 8, even if the update query for row 5 takes three hours. So queries don't have to wait for eachother, which means much better performance at high-concurrency.
That is why I advice a benchmark test.
If MySQL should crack, it's better to find out during a test than during the grand opening of the site :-)